Keep Counting [Weekly] — 2026-10-16 (Fri)

universe 1590 · latest weekly bar 2026-10-05 (completed week) SETUP 12 · COILING 121 (cohering 74 / diverging 30) · FRESH_BREAK 2

🌐 REGIME — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

capitulation — don’t chase weakness; watch the ⭐ coils for the turn today 90↑ / 78↓ (7%+ wk-movers) · 5-bar balance -18 · T2108 0% above 40-wk MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-10-15)

no state changes since last run

🚦 Gate — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

Capitulation — these coils are TURN-WATCH, not chase-now. Size small, let the regime flip green before leaning in.

⭐ Worth a real look

$RXO (-2.7% from high, 11%/wk, +81% 6mo) — 4G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting
$CON (-0.3% from high, 5%/wk, +70% 6mo) — 4G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting
$SPNT (-5.8% from high, 5%/wk, +9% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 3G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 6% off the high; range contracting
$CNXN (-1.2% from high, 6%/wk, +49% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 5G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high
$EGBN (-3.7% from high, 5%/wk, +6% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 3G/2R net accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting
$ZD (-6.5% from high, 5%/wk, +29% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 3G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 7% off the high; range contracting

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs

$HPE (-0.1% from high) — 1G/2R — supply leaving while glued to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$KEYS (-1.8% from high) — 0G/3R — supply leaving while glued to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$JXN (-7.9% from high) — 2G/2R — supply leaving while 8% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$PLUS (-4.9% from high) — 1G/3R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

$CNXN -1.2% 5.8%/wk 6mo +49% $ 60M 5G/0R accu COHERING
$CHEF -3.5% 6.9%/wk 6mo +77% $ 365M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$EGBN -3.7% 5.3%/wk 6mo +6% $ 39M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$PEB -4.1% 5.8%/wk 6mo +40% $ 207M 5G/2R accu COHERING
$HALO -5.5% 6.7%/wk 6mo +63% $ 1019M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$SPNT -5.8% 5.1%/wk 6mo +9% $ 80M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$SXT -6.1% 5.1%/wk 6mo +40% $ 219M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$MATX -6.3% 6.3%/wk 6mo +32% $ 305M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$ZD -6.5% 5.4%/wk 6mo +29% $ 151M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$SMTC -7.3% 17.9%/wk 6mo+120% $ 1890M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$NSIT -2.9% 7.2%/wk 6mo+138% $ 224M 2G/1R neut MIXED
$PLUS -4.9% 5.4%/wk 6mo +15% $ 88M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

$HPE -0.1% 13.9%/wk 6mo+195% $ 5105M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$AMG -1.6% 6.4%/wk 6mo +36% $ 522M 3G/4R dist DIVERGING
$KEYS -1.8% 7.9%/wk 6mo +18% $ 2002M 0G/3R dist DIVERGING
$JCI -1.9% 5.4%/wk 6mo +10% $ 2193M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$UFCS -2.8% 7.0%/wk 6mo +41% $ 41M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$EOG -3.9% 6.6%/wk 6mo +9% $ 1967M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$NPK -4.2% 6.6%/wk 6mo +8% $ 70M 2G/4R dist DIVERGING
$XOM -4.2% 5.2%/wk 6mo +11% $10807M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$VTRS -4.3% 5.6%/wk 6mo +31% $ 766M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$ALRM -4.3% 5.7%/wk 6mo +30% $ 117M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$MD -4.7% 5.5%/wk 6mo +24% $ 93M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$AAMI -4.9% 7.1%/wk 6mo +51% $ 165M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PLUS -4.9% 5.4%/wk 6mo +15% $ 88M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$ECPG -5.0% 7.3%/wk 6mo +32% $ 163M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$NHC -5.1% 6.1%/wk 6mo +33% $ 116M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$WSM -5.1% 6.1%/wk 6mo +28% $ 1198M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$COP -5.3% 5.9%/wk 6mo +9% $ 3994M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$TT -5.7% 5.1%/wk 6mo +2% $ 2562M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$PBF -5.8% 13.4%/wk 6mo+107% $ 1152M 2G/4R dist DIVERGING
$EIG -6.1% 5.1%/wk 6mo +18% $ 44M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$KNTK -6.1% 5.4%/wk 6mo +13% $ 299M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$KDP -6.1% 5.3%/wk 6mo +20% $ 1614M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$CNC -6.1% 7.1%/wk 6mo +75% $ 1367M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$GEO -6.2% 7.9%/wk 6mo +78% $ 322M 4G/4R dist DIVERGING
$PK -6.4% 5.5%/wk 6mo +35% $ 278M 1G/4R dist DIVERGING
$PR -6.6% 6.2%/wk 6mo +11% $ 926M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$TGTX -6.6% 9.2%/wk 6mo +64% $ 505M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$HOG -6.8% 7.8%/wk 6mo +18% $ 260M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$THC -6.8% 6.3%/wk 6mo +35% $ 1057M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$JXN -7.9% 5.9%/wk 6mo +28% $ 402M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

$NTNX -0.0% 5.8%/wk 6mo+117% $ 776M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$FTNT -0.1% 8.7%/wk 6mo+154% $ 3444M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$HSTM -0.2% 5.2%/wk 6mo +67% $ 27M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$CON -0.3% 5.4%/wk 6mo +70% $ 142M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$ANET -0.3% 9.4%/wk 6mo +47% $ 5360M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$OKTA -0.4% 12.3%/wk 6mo+269% $ 2288M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$NTAP -0.4% 8.3%/wk 6mo+147% $ 2377M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$DT -0.4% 7.7%/wk 6mo +96% $ 1591M 6G/0R accu COHERING
$FFIV -0.5% 6.9%/wk 6mo +66% $ 1136M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$ZBRA -0.9% 6.3%/wk 6mo +74% $ 982M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$QLYS -1.0% 12.3%/wk 6mo+166% $ 559M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$BOX -1.3% 6.5%/wk 6mo +70% $ 418M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$DELL -1.6% 15.7%/wk 6mo+230% $14229M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$VEEV -2.0% 7.9%/wk 6mo +96% $ 1892M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$HAE -2.1% 6.9%/wk 6mo+107% $ 316M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$EXEL -2.1% 7.2%/wk 6mo +35% $ 622M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$MTD -2.3% 6.0%/wk 6mo +17% $ 1190M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$INSW -2.4% 8.2%/wk 6mo +62% $ 293M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$VIR -2.5% 10.9%/wk 6mo +23% $ 80M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$EMR -2.7% 5.6%/wk 6mo +13% $ 1893M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$RXO -2.7% 11.0%/wk 6mo +81% $ 186M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$CRVL -2.9% 5.9%/wk 6mo +46% $ 62M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$PSX -2.9% 6.9%/wk 6mo +75% $ 3012M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$APH -3.0% 7.3%/wk 6mo +24% $ 4958M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$PM -3.2% 5.3%/wk 6mo +25% $ 4477M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$MPC -3.2% 8.2%/wk 6mo+104% $ 4434M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$RNG -3.2% 10.7%/wk 6mo+137% $ 547M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$APA -3.3% 7.3%/wk 6mo +19% $ 1139M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$LITE -3.5% 19.4%/wk 6mo +23% $18686M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$LAUR -3.6% 6.1%/wk 6mo +20% $ 189M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$VLO -3.6% 7.6%/wk 6mo +82% $ 4900M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$A -3.7% 6.5%/wk 6mo +48% $ 1782M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$LPG -3.9% 9.9%/wk 6mo +67% $ 151M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$GILD -3.9% 6.1%/wk 6mo +9% $ 3986M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$LQDT -4.2% 6.6%/wk 6mo +33% $ 52M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$CRWD -4.2% 13.1%/wk 6mo+190% $ 9696M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$EQH -4.2% 5.9%/wk 6mo +41% $ 660M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$AVTR -4.3% 6.8%/wk 6mo +98% $ 617M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$CRBG -4.3% 5.5%/wk 6mo +39% $ 715M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$SIG -4.5% 7.4%/wk 6mo +12% $ 311M 4G/1R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

$FRO -1.3% 9.3%/wk 6mo +63% $ 564M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$ASX -3.1% 10.2%/wk 6mo +87% $ 1407M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$SNOW -4.1% 8.2%/wk 6mo+205% $ 6217M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$TSM -7.0% 6.3%/wk 6mo +22% $21504M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$OSCR -3.2% 11.6%/wk 6mo+131% $ 747M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

$IREZ — 5/5 days
$BMBL — 5/5 days
$PMI — 5/5 days
$CBRZ — 5/5 days
$ASTN — 5/5 days
$SKDD — 5/5 days
$SNDQ — 5/5 days
$RGTZ — 5/5 days
$FIGS — 5/5 days
$JDZG — 5/5 days
$PCRX — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$KOD — 5/5 days
$VRA — 5/5 days
$BYRN — 5/5 days
$PICS — 5/5 days
$MRNX — 5/5 days
$RXO — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$PTC — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$XP — 5/5 days
$OPCH — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$RAMZ — 4/5 days
$RGC — 4/5 days
$SUJA — 4/5 days
$SJT — 4/5 days
$CANG — 4/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $RXO

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: 4G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $HPE

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 1G/2R — supply leaving while glued to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

⚖️ Decisive vs Thin — why the count matters — $DT

A lopsided tally (e.g. 7G/0R) is decisive commitment; a 2G/2R or 1G/1R is NO read — not enough committed flow to validate either way. Trust decisive, skip thin. This name: 6G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_W_1016 (14)

RXO,CON,SPNT,CNXN,EGBN,ZD,CHEF,PEB,HALO,SXT,MATX,SMTC,NSIT,PLUS

KC_Coils_W_1016 (50)

NTNX,FTNT,HSTM,CON,ANET,OKTA,NTAP,DT,FFIV,ZBRA,QLYS,BOX,DELL,VEEV,HAE,EXEL,MTD,INSW,VIR,EMR,RXO,CRVL,PSX,APH,PM,MPC,RNG,APA,LITE,LAUR,VLO,A,LPG,GILD,LQDT,CRWD,EQH,AVTR,CRBG,SIG,WAT,CBRL,AMN,CVI,WST,PAYC,DOCU,TMO,UNM,OVV

KC_Fakes_W_1016 (30)

PLUS,HPE,AMG,KEYS,JCI,UFCS,EOG,NPK,XOM,VTRS,ALRM,MD,AAMI,ECPG,NHC,WSM,COP,TT,PBF,EIG,KNTK,KDP,CNC,GEO,PK,PR,TGTX,HOG,THC,JXN

KC_OffIdx_W_1016 (5)

FRO,ASX,SNOW,TSM,OSCR

aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.

Read № 145 · Friday, October 16, 2026