Keep Counting [Daily] — 2026-10-16 (Fri)

universe 1590 · latest daily bar 2026-10-16 (latest daily (today in-progress)) SETUP 2 · COILING 16 (cohering 7 / diverging 3) · FRESH_BREAK 0

🌐 REGIME — CORRECTION / DISTRIBUTION

beach-mode — most coils fail here; sit on hands or G/0R only today 19↑ / 131↓ (4%+ day-movers) · 5-bar balance -142 · T2108 39% above 40-d MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-10-15)

• ⚠️ FLIPPED cohering→diverging (early distribution warning): $CNK (2G/2R)
• ⬆️ GRADUATED coil→setup: $LLY, $GME
• 🌀 new coil: $DFIN, $SM, $RNG, $ECPG, $AAMI, $TALO, $SBH, $CART
• ➖ dropped out: $TGTX, $PBF, $QLYS, $PARR, $RVTY, $KNTK, $HUM, $OSCR, $META, $HOG, $RGEN, $SIG

🚦 Gate — CORRECTION / DISTRIBUTION

Beach-mode — longs HEAVILY suppressed: only the most decisive G/0R survive, and even those swim against the tide. Most coils FAIL here. Learn/watch tape, not a buy tape. regime gate suppressed 5 cohering coil(s) that weren’t decisive enough for this tape.

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs (lead this regime)

• $SBH (-7.1% from high) — 6G/7R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
• $AAMI (-6.5% from high) — 5G/5R — supply leaving while 6% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
• $CNK (-3.3% from high) — 2G/2R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

⭐ Worth a real look (secondary — fakes lead this regime)

• $LLY (-2.8% from high, 3%/day, +10% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
• $GME (-5.3% from high, 4%/day, +23% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 6G/4R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 5% off the high
• $CHEF (-4.2% from high, 3%/day, +19% 3mo) — 5G/3R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

• $LLY -2.8% 3.1%/day 3mo +10% $ 2489M 7G/2R accu COHERING
• $GME -5.3% 4.0%/day 3mo +23% $ 308M 6G/4R accu COHERING

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

• $CNK -3.3% 3.5%/day 3mo +20% $ 68M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
• $AAMI -6.5% 3.1%/day 3mo +12% $ 35M 5G/5R dist DIVERGING
• $SBH -7.1% 3.1%/day 3mo +12% $ 21M 6G/7R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

• $MATX -2.4% 3.2%/day 3mo +8% $ 63M 7G/4R accu COHERING
• $ECPG -4.1% 3.2%/day 3mo +15% $ 20M 2G/1R accu COHERING
• $CHEF -4.2% 3.5%/day 3mo +19% $ 64M 5G/3R accu COHERING
• $FTRE -4.3% 4.8%/day 3mo +27% $ 30M 7G/6R accu COHERING
• $SM -5.0% 3.4%/day 3mo +26% $ 98M 1G/0R accu COHERING
• $TALO -5.1% 3.2%/day 3mo +25% $ 34M 5G/5R accu COHERING
• $CART -5.4% 3.1%/day 3mo +7% $ 160M 2G/1R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

• none coiling

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

• $IREZ — 5/5 days
• $BMBL — 5/5 days
• $PMI — 5/5 days
• $CBRZ — 5/5 days
• $ASTN — 5/5 days
• $SKDD — 5/5 days
• $SNDQ — 5/5 days
• $RGTZ — 5/5 days
• $FIGS — 5/5 days
• $JDZG — 5/5 days
• $PCRX — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $KOD — 5/5 days
• $VRA — 5/5 days
• $BYRN — 5/5 days
• $PICS — 5/5 days
• $MRNX — 5/5 days
• $RXO — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $PTC — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $XP — 5/5 days
• $OPCH — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $RAMZ — 4/5 days
• $RGC — 4/5 days
• $SUJA — 4/5 days
• $SJT — 4/5 days
• $CANG — 4/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $LLY

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $CNK

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 2G/2R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

⚖️ Decisive vs Thin — why the count matters — $MATX

A lopsided tally (e.g. 7G/0R) is decisive commitment; a 2G/2R or 1G/1R is NO read — not enough committed flow to validate either way. Trust decisive, skip thin. This name: 7G/4R net accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_D_1016 (3)

LLY,GME,CHEF

KC_Coils_D_1016 (7)

MATX,ECPG,CHEF,FTRE,SM,TALO,CART

KC_Fakes_D_1016 (3)

CNK,AAMI,SBH

KC_OffIdx_D_1016 (0)

(none)

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aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.