Keep Counting [Daily] — 2026-10-05 (Mon)

universe 1590 · latest daily bar 2026-10-05 (latest daily (today in-progress)) SETUP 3 · COILING 33 (cohering 16 / diverging 6) · FRESH_BREAK 2

🌐 REGIME — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

capitulation — don’t chase weakness; watch the ⭐ coils for the turn today 68↑ / 16↓ (4%+ day-movers) · 5-bar balance +148 · T2108 27% above 40-d MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-10-02)

• ⬆️ GRADUATED coil→setup: $DDOG, $WT, $AVT
• 🌀 new coil: $OSCR, $BGC, $RGEN, $ECPG, $BFLY, $CHEF, $CXW, $MATX, $GME, $VCTR, $APA
• ➖ dropped out: $CNH, $TER, $GH, $PGEN, $QLYS, $SHOO, $FRO

🚦 Gate — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

Capitulation — these coils are TURN-WATCH, not chase-now. Size small, let the regime flip green before leaning in.

⭐ Worth a real look

• $TWLO (-1.6% from high, 5%/day, +42% 3mo) — 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting
• $PBF (-1.1% from high, 6%/day, +74% 3mo) — 8G/4R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high
• $SDGR (-1.5% from high, 6%/day, +98% 3mo) — 5G/4R net accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting
• $CTKB (-1.5% from high, 4%/day, +34% 3mo) — 4G/3R net accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high
• $AMRX (-3.9% from high, 3%/day, +19% 3mo) — 5G/5R net accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting
• $LITE (-2.9% from high, 6%/day, +56% 3mo) — 3G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs

• $KNTK (-6.7% from high) — 3G/7R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
• $AAMI (-2.4% from high) — 4G/7R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
• $APA (-7.6% from high) — 4G/5R — supply leaving while 8% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
• $VCTR (-6.7% from high) — 4G/5R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

• $AVT -2.2% 3.5%/day 3mo +30% $ 133M 3G/3R accu COHERING
• $DDOG -5.6% 3.8%/day 3mo +8% $ 740M 1G/0R accu COHERING
• $WT -5.6% 3.6%/day 3mo +32% $ 61M 2G/5R neut MIXED

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

• $AAMI -2.4% 3.2%/day 3mo +23% $ 38M 4G/7R dist DIVERGING
• $SN -6.1% 3.8%/day 3mo +21% $ 296M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
• $DOCU -6.6% 3.1%/day 3mo +48% $ 190M 0G/2R dist DIVERGING
• $VCTR -6.7% 3.4%/day 3mo +29% $ 75M 4G/5R dist DIVERGING
• $KNTK -6.7% 3.1%/day 3mo +8% $ 67M 3G/7R dist DIVERGING
• $APA -7.6% 3.1%/day 3mo +29% $ 257M 4G/5R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

• $PBF -1.1% 6.2%/day 3mo +74% $ 272M 8G/4R accu COHERING
• $FTRE -1.3% 4.7%/day 3mo +21% $ 28M 6G/2R accu COHERING
• $CTKB -1.5% 4.2%/day 3mo +34% $ 7M 4G/3R accu COHERING
• $SDGR -1.5% 6.3%/day 3mo +98% $ 73M 5G/4R accu COHERING
• $TWLO -1.6% 4.6%/day 3mo +42% $ 794M 7G/2R accu COHERING
• $INSW -2.6% 3.9%/day 3mo +37% $ 87M 2G/1R accu COHERING
• $LITE -2.9% 6.2%/day 3mo +56% $ 4109M 3G/1R accu COHERING
• $AMRX -3.9% 3.4%/day 3mo +19% $ 54M 5G/5R accu COHERING
• $SMTC -4.5% 5.7%/day 3mo +53% $ 529M 4G/3R accu COHERING
• $NEO -4.6% 4.4%/day 3mo +32% $ 40M 6G/5R accu COHERING
• $RGEN -4.7% 3.9%/day 3mo +36% $ 186M 7G/3R accu COHERING
• $META -4.9% 3.0%/day 3mo +21% $13933M 3G/3R accu COHERING
• $GME -6.5% 3.7%/day 3mo +14% $ 232M 8G/3R accu COHERING
• $CBRL -6.5% 4.6%/day 3mo +14% $ 56M 1G/0R accu COHERING
• $ECPG -6.7% 3.3%/day 3mo +9% $ 30M 4G/4R accu COHERING
• $CNK -7.9% 3.1%/day 3mo +22% $ 75M 3G/1R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

• $OSCR -6.0% 5.2%/day 3mo +4% $ 166M 3G/5R neut MIXED
• $BFLY -6.7% 5.8%/day 3mo +24% $ 40M 2G/3R neut MIXED

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

• $KOD — 5/5 days
• $SVRN — 5/5 days
• $CD — 5/5 days
• $FEAM — 5/5 days
• $DNA — 5/5 days
• $SUIL — 5/5 days
• $GRAL — 5/5 days
• $YDES — 5/5 days
• $GLND — 5/5 days
• $AXTX — 5/5 days
• $AXTL — 5/5 days
• $MRNX — 5/5 days
• $USDE — 5/5 days
• $AVX — 5/5 days
• $IOVA — 5/5 days
• $MXL — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $PSIG — 5/5 days
• $VICR — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $P — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $XRPN — 4/5 days
• $SDEV — 4/5 days
• $MSGY — 4/5 days
• $APUS — 4/5 days
• $TWST — 4/5 days ⭐ also coiling
• $VRA — 4/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $TWLO

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $AAMI

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 4G/7R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🚫 Extended — what we do NOT chase — $ITGR

Already ran far from the 40-MA (high ATR-extension): the obvious move everyone sees, edge gone, prone to the pullback. We surface the pre-obvious coil, not this. This name: +153.1 ATR above the 200d — -0.3% off high but already extended

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_D_1005 (9)

TWLO,PBF,SDGR,CTKB,AMRX,LITE,AVT,DDOG,WT

KC_Coils_D_1005 (16)

PBF,FTRE,CTKB,SDGR,TWLO,INSW,LITE,AMRX,SMTC,NEO,RGEN,META,GME,CBRL,ECPG,CNK

KC_Fakes_D_1005 (6)

AAMI,SN,DOCU,VCTR,KNTK,APA

KC_OffIdx_D_1005 (2)

OSCR,BFLY

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aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.