Keep Counting [Weekly] — 2026-09-25 (Fri)

universe 1590 · latest weekly bar 2026-09-14 (completed week) SETUP 11 · COILING 126 (cohering 82 / diverging 31) · FRESH_BREAK 1

🌐 REGIME — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

capitulation — don’t chase weakness; watch the ⭐ coils for the turn today 47↑ / 123↓ (7%+ wk-movers) · 5-bar balance -189 · T2108 0% above 40-wk MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-09-24)

no state changes since last run

🚦 Gate — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

Capitulation — these coils are TURN-WATCH, not chase-now. Size small, let the regime flip green before leaning in.

⭐ Worth a real look

$HZO (-0.0% from high, 6%/wk, +113% 6mo) — 2G/1R net accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; very tight box; range contracting
$DV (-1.4% from high, 7%/wk, +34% 6mo) — 3G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting
$SWKS (-3.8% from high, 12%/wk, +63% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 3G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
$CON (-3.4% from high, 6%/wk, +64% 6mo) — 4G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting
$CXW (-3.6% from high, 8%/wk, +81% 6mo) — 7G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
$LQDT (-2.7% from high, 7%/wk, +50% 6mo) — 5G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs

$HPE (-5.4% from high) — 1G/2R — supply leaving while 5% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$PLUS (-7.2% from high) — 1G/4R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$KNTK (-6.0% from high) — 2G/3R — supply leaving while 6% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$ADM (-4.0% from high) — 1G/3R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

$EXEL -2.3% 7.2%/wk 6mo +41% $ 647M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$SWKS -3.8% 12.0%/wk 6mo +63% $ 1676M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$HPQ -5.1% 9.7%/wk 6mo +88% $ 2061M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$BFH -5.2% 6.0%/wk 6mo +45% $ 281M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$LH -6.2% 6.4%/wk 6mo +22% $ 989M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$ROIV -6.4% 6.4%/wk 6mo +44% $ 1062M 4G/3R accu COHERING
$AVT -3.9% 8.1%/wk 6mo +64% $ 494M 1G/2R neut MIXED
$NTAP -5.4% 8.7%/wk 6mo +96% $ 2294M 3G/2R neut MIXED
$ADM -4.0% 6.0%/wk 6mo +29% $ 1498M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$HPE -5.4% 14.4%/wk 6mo+180% $ 4716M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$IFF -7.1% 5.1%/wk 6mo +25% $ 665M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

$AAPL -2.4% 5.6%/wk 6mo +36% $73895M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$ADM -4.0% 6.0%/wk 6mo +29% $ 1498M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$TGTX -4.1% 10.5%/wk 6mo +89% $ 546M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$UFCS -4.1% 6.1%/wk 6mo +49% $ 44M 3G/5R dist DIVERGING
$ECPG -5.2% 7.3%/wk 6mo +46% $ 171M 4G/4R dist DIVERGING
$HPE -5.4% 14.4%/wk 6mo+180% $ 4716M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$ELV -5.8% 5.7%/wk 6mo +41% $ 2364M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$GNW -6.0% 5.7%/wk 6mo +26% $ 138M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$KNTK -6.0% 5.3%/wk 6mo +17% $ 262M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$NPK -6.1% 6.3%/wk 6mo +15% $ 58M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$OKE -6.4% 5.3%/wk 6mo +5% $ 1701M 1G/4R dist DIVERGING
$EOG -6.4% 6.6%/wk 6mo +4% $ 1964M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$CNC -6.5% 7.5%/wk 6mo +89% $ 1367M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PBF -6.6% 13.4%/wk 6mo +57% $ 925M 3G/3R dist DIVERGING
$DAR -6.6% 7.3%/wk 6mo +19% $ 710M 3G/4R dist DIVERGING
$FTRE -6.8% 9.9%/wk 6mo+109% $ 97M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$EIG -6.9% 5.1%/wk 6mo +25% $ 47M 0G/1R dist DIVERGING
$COP -6.9% 5.9%/wk 6mo +4% $ 4007M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$IFF -7.1% 5.1%/wk 6mo +25% $ 665M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PLUS -7.2% 7.2%/wk 6mo +22% $ 86M 1G/4R dist DIVERGING
$NHC -7.2% 6.7%/wk 6mo +40% $ 121M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$MD -7.2% 7.2%/wk 6mo +32% $ 93M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$ALRM -7.2% 6.6%/wk 6mo +22% $ 105M 0G/1R dist DIVERGING
$FAST -7.4% 5.1%/wk 6mo +12% $ 1700M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$THC -7.4% 7.6%/wk 6mo +31% $ 1092M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$PK -7.5% 5.8%/wk 6mo +46% $ 278M 0G/3R dist DIVERGING
$ARW -7.6% 7.8%/wk 6mo +61% $ 626M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$PR -7.6% 5.7%/wk 6mo +13% $ 915M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$VTRS -7.8% 5.6%/wk 6mo +28% $ 765M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PLMR -7.9% 6.7%/wk 6mo +16% $ 163M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$AAMI -7.9% 7.1%/wk 6mo +79% $ 165M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

$HZO -0.0% 5.6%/wk 6mo+113% $ 73M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$HALO -0.2% 7.0%/wk 6mo +77% $ 775M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$SMTC -0.2% 20.4%/wk 6mo+151% $ 1890M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$NEOG -0.5% 8.9%/wk 6mo +56% $ 98M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$NEO -0.6% 8.5%/wk 6mo+150% $ 173M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$MPC -0.7% 6.6%/wk 6mo +83% $ 3479M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$VLO -0.8% 6.6%/wk 6mo +72% $ 4273M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$DGX -0.9% 5.2%/wk 6mo +26% $ 964M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$ABBV -1.3% 5.4%/wk 6mo +29% $ 6778M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$DV -1.4% 7.2%/wk 6mo +34% $ 149M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$PSX -1.4% 5.9%/wk 6mo +56% $ 2773M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$DINO -1.5% 8.8%/wk 6mo +92% $ 1230M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$UNM -1.6% 5.7%/wk 6mo +31% $ 595M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$INSW -1.8% 8.5%/wk 6mo +64% $ 237M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$FFIV -1.8% 7.2%/wk 6mo +52% $ 1046M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$TMO -1.8% 5.3%/wk 6mo +37% $ 4873M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$HAE -1.9% 7.0%/wk 6mo +85% $ 316M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$CNXN -1.9% 5.9%/wk 6mo +54% $ 54M 5G/0R accu COHERING
$EQH -2.2% 5.4%/wk 6mo +44% $ 640M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$CRBG -2.3% 5.5%/wk 6mo +50% $ 555M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$WAT -2.4% 5.9%/wk 6mo +41% $ 1488M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$LQDT -2.7% 6.6%/wk 6mo +50% $ 41M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$AMRX -2.9% 6.6%/wk 6mo +58% $ 163M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$QRVO -3.0% 7.6%/wk 6mo +50% $ 479M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$LPG -3.0% 10.3%/wk 6mo +77% $ 144M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$DE -3.1% 6.9%/wk 6mo +22% $ 3582M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$TMP -3.2% 5.1%/wk 6mo +34% $ 54M 5G/3R accu COHERING
$MATX -3.3% 5.5%/wk 6mo +50% $ 324M 6G/1R accu COHERING
$AVTR -3.3% 8.0%/wk 6mo+107% $ 505M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$EGBN -3.3% 5.7%/wk 6mo +18% $ 34M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$CON -3.4% 6.0%/wk 6mo +64% $ 142M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$HRMY -3.4% 7.4%/wk 6mo +52% $ 152M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$DXCM -3.5% 6.8%/wk 6mo +33% $ 1796M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$FTNT -3.6% 8.7%/wk 6mo+109% $ 3664M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$CXW -3.6% 7.6%/wk 6mo +81% $ 267M 7G/1R accu COHERING
$DT -3.7% 8.1%/wk 6mo +45% $ 1396M 5G/0R accu COHERING
$BLFS -3.7% 8.9%/wk 6mo +95% $ 153M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$RVTY -4.1% 6.7%/wk 6mo +67% $ 928M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$ILMN -4.2% 9.0%/wk 6mo +93% $ 1928M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$GEO -4.2% 6.6%/wk 6mo +93% $ 288M 4G/2R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

$TWST -0.0% 13.7%/wk 6mo+297% $ 872M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$GH -2.3% 9.8%/wk 6mo+111% $ 1736M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$PGEN -3.2% 14.9%/wk 6mo+137% $ 138M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$TXG -4.2% 15.0%/wk 6mo+317% $ 803M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$FRO -6.4% 7.9%/wk 6mo +60% $ 444M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$EWTX -6.6% 9.4%/wk 6mo +56% $ 212M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$OSCR -6.8% 11.6%/wk 6mo+154% $ 747M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

$GRML — 5/5 days
$USDE — 5/5 days
$SECZ — 5/5 days
$CYPH — 5/5 days
$INDP — 5/5 days
$PSIG — 5/5 days
$MRNX — 5/5 days
$MEDS — 5/5 days
$EAF — 5/5 days
$AMDL — 5/5 days
$INTW — 5/5 days
$BNC — 5/5 days
$ZCSH — 5/5 days
$FBL — 5/5 days
$METU — 5/5 days
$ARMG — 5/5 days
$PRTH — 5/5 days
$GLOO — 5/5 days
$AEMD — 4/5 days
$CD — 4/5 days
$VNCE — 4/5 days
$LABX — 4/5 days
$VICR — 4/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$HSCS — 4/5 days
$GMEU — 4/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $DV

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: 3G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; range contracting

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $HPE

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 1G/2R — supply leaving while 5% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

⚖️ Decisive vs Thin — why the count matters — $CXW

A lopsided tally (e.g. 7G/0R) is decisive commitment; a 2G/2R or 1G/1R is NO read — not enough committed flow to validate either way. Trust decisive, skip thin. This name: 7G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_W_0925 (16)

HZO,DV,SWKS,CON,CXW,LQDT,EXEL,HPQ,BFH,LH,ROIV,AVT,NTAP,ADM,HPE,IFF

KC_Coils_W_0925 (50)

HZO,HALO,SMTC,NEOG,NEO,MPC,VLO,DGX,ABBV,DV,PSX,DINO,UNM,INSW,FFIV,TMO,HAE,CNXN,EQH,CRBG,WAT,LQDT,AMRX,QRVO,LPG,DE,TMP,MATX,AVTR,EGBN,CON,HRMY,DXCM,FTNT,CXW,DT,BLFS,RVTY,ILMN,GEO,AMD,DBX,BIIB,GILD,DELL,EHC,ZD,BIO,CRWD,WEX

KC_Fakes_W_0925 (31)

ADM,HPE,IFF,AAPL,TGTX,UFCS,ECPG,ELV,GNW,KNTK,NPK,OKE,EOG,CNC,PBF,DAR,FTRE,EIG,COP,PLUS,NHC,MD,ALRM,FAST,THC,PK,ARW,PR,VTRS,PLMR,AAMI

KC_OffIdx_W_0925 (7)

TWST,GH,PGEN,TXG,FRO,EWTX,OSCR

aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.

Read № 118 · Friday, September 25, 2026