Keep Counting [Daily] — 2026-09-22 (Tue)

universe 1590 · latest daily bar 2026-09-22 (latest daily (today in-progress)) SETUP 5 · COILING 22 (cohering 6 / diverging 8) · FRESH_BREAK 0

🌐 REGIME — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

capitulation — don’t chase weakness; watch the ⭐ coils for the turn today 74↑ / 40↓ (4%+ day-movers) · 5-bar balance +60 · T2108 23% above 40-d MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-09-21)

⬆️ GRADUATED coil→setup: $HPE, $AVT, $TGTX, $P
🌀 new coil: $FCX, $AAMI, $BRKR, $CVI, $SBH, $VIR, $EPC, $KYMR, $META, $NOV, $AMN
➖ dropped out: $CRWD, $FFIV, $PARR, $SMTC, $ADM, $CNC, $BFH, $SAIC, $SABR, $EWTX

🚦 Gate — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

Capitulation — these coils are TURN-WATCH, not chase-now. Size small, let the regime flip green before leaning in.

⭐ Worth a real look

$TGTX (-2.0% from high, 3%/day, +8% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting
$P (-6.9% from high, 5%/day, +53% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 5G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 7% off the high
$AVT (-1.8% from high, 3%/day, +10% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 7G/4R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high
$QRVO (-1.9% from high, 3%/day, +19% 3mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 5G/3R net accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high
$DELL (-7.8% from high, 5%/day, +28% 3mo) — 5G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 8% off the high; range contracting
$CNH (-5.5% from high, 4%/day, +37% 3mo) — 2G/1R net accumulation under a flat tape; 5% off the high; range contracting

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs

$NPK (-4.6% from high) — 3G/8R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$AAMI (-6.7% from high) — 3G/7R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$AMN (-7.2% from high) — 1G/5R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$SBH (-5.4% from high) — 4G/5R — supply leaving while 5% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

$AVT -1.8% 3.3%/day 3mo +10% $ 103M 7G/4R accu COHERING
$QRVO -1.9% 3.3%/day 3mo +19% $ 125M 5G/3R accu COHERING
$TGTX -2.0% 3.4%/day 3mo +8% $ 85M 7G/2R accu COHERING
$HPE -5.0% 4.6%/day 3mo +25% $ 1455M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$P -6.9% 4.6%/day 3mo +53% $ 298M 5G/0R accu COHERING

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

$BBY -1.1% 3.5%/day 3mo +26% $ 359M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$NPK -4.6% 3.3%/day 3mo +19% $ 15M 3G/8R dist DIVERGING
$SBH -5.4% 3.2%/day 3mo +27% $ 18M 4G/5R dist DIVERGING
$EPC -6.6% 3.1%/day 3mo +7% $ 14M 2G/6R dist DIVERGING
$AAMI -6.7% 3.1%/day 3mo +26% $ 37M 3G/7R dist DIVERGING
$AMN -7.2% 3.5%/day 3mo +11% $ 19M 1G/5R dist DIVERGING
$FCX -7.3% 3.5%/day 3mo +15% $ 858M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$NOV -8.0% 3.0%/day 3mo +8% $ 58M 4G/4R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

$FTRE -4.5% 4.3%/day 3mo +24% $ 23M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$CNH -5.5% 3.7%/day 3mo +37% $ 233M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$BRKR -6.3% 4.0%/day 3mo +11% $ 113M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$FLR -7.4% 3.0%/day 3mo +1% $ 112M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$NTAP -7.7% 3.6%/day 3mo +22% $ 413M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$DELL -7.8% 4.8%/day 3mo +28% $ 5109M 5G/1R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

$GH -3.5% 4.9%/day 3mo +35% $ 295M 7G/3R accu COHERING
$KYMR -6.1% 3.8%/day 3mo +24% $ 74M 5G/4R neut MIXED

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

$INDP — 5/5 days
$PSIG — 5/5 days
$TJGC — 5/5 days
$BRR — 5/5 days
$BNC — 5/5 days
$ZCSH — 5/5 days
$GMEU — 5/5 days
$SDGR — 5/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$GLOO — 5/5 days
$USDE — 4/5 days
$CYPH — 4/5 days
$SECZ — 4/5 days
$VNCE — 4/5 days
$FBL — 4/5 days
$METU — 4/5 days
$BWET — 4/5 days
$FTFT — 4/5 days
$BLSM — 4/5 days
$MEDS — 3/5 days
$EAF — 3/5 days
$INTW — 3/5 days
$AMDL — 3/5 days
$MSTX — 3/5 days
$MSTU — 3/5 days
$MRNX — 3/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $TGTX

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 7G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high; range contracting

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $NPK

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 3G/8R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

⚖️ Decisive vs Thin — why the count matters — $P

A lopsided tally (e.g. 7G/0R) is decisive commitment; a 2G/2R or 1G/1R is NO read — not enough committed flow to validate either way. Trust decisive, skip thin. This name: inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 5G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; 7% off the high

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_D_0922 (7)

TGTX,P,AVT,QRVO,DELL,CNH,HPE

KC_Coils_D_0922 (6)

FTRE,CNH,BRKR,FLR,NTAP,DELL

KC_Fakes_D_0922 (8)

BBY,NPK,SBH,EPC,AAMI,AMN,FCX,NOV

KC_OffIdx_D_0922 (2)

GH,KYMR

aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.

Read № 112 · Tuesday, September 22, 2026