Keep Counting [Weekly] — 2026-09-17 (Thu)

universe 1590 · latest weekly bar 2026-09-07 (completed week) SETUP 26 · COILING 122 (cohering 79 / diverging 28) · FRESH_BREAK 0

🌐 REGIME — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

capitulation — don’t chase weakness; watch the ⭐ coils for the turn today 31↑ / 137↓ (7%+ wk-movers) · 5-bar balance -233 · T2108 0% above 40-wk MA

⏫ What moved since last run (2026-09-16)

➖ dropped out: $DINO, $FLR

🚦 Gate — WASHOUT / OVERSOLD

Capitulation — these coils are TURN-WATCH, not chase-now. Size small, let the regime flip green before leaning in.

⭐ Worth a real look

$CXW (-1.0% from high, 8%/wk, +92% 6mo) — 7G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; very tight box
$CNH (-6.1% from high, 9%/wk, +28% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 4G/3R net accumulation under a flat tape; 6% off the high
$LFST (-2.3% from high, 9%/wk, +105% 6mo) — 5G/0R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
$ROIV (-4.0% from high, 7%/wk, +45% 6mo) — 5G/2R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
$LQDT (-3.6% from high, 7%/wk, +49% 6mo) — 5G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high
$DE (-4.3% from high, 7%/wk, +17% 6mo) — inside-bar trigger cocked at the box top; 3G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; pressed to the high

⚠️ Clearest fakes — decisive distribution at the highs

$FCFS (-4.4% from high) — 1G/3R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$UNM (-2.4% from high) — 1G/2R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$DAR (-7.0% from high) — 2G/5R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit
$NUE (-7.4% from high) — 2G/2R — supply leaving while 7% off the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🎯 SETUP — act-ready (inside bar pressed to box top)

$NPK -2.5% 6.6%/wk 6mo +17% $ 58M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$ZD -3.2% 6.0%/wk 6mo +42% $ 143M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$TMP -3.7% 5.1%/wk 6mo +34% $ 46M 5G/3R accu COHERING
$EOG -4.1% 5.6%/wk 6mo +10% $ 1964M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$DE -4.3% 6.9%/wk 6mo +17% $ 3089M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$CPAY -4.5% 6.2%/wk 6mo +29% $ 893M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$HRMY -4.5% 7.4%/wk 6mo +50% $ 143M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$GEO -5.0% 7.1%/wk 6mo+116% $ 288M 4G/2R accu COHERING
$EGBN -5.8% 5.9%/wk 6mo +14% $ 34M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$EXEL -6.0% 7.2%/wk 6mo +36% $ 637M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$CNH -6.1% 8.5%/wk 6mo +28% $ 745M 4G/3R accu COHERING
$NEM -6.3% 8.1%/wk 6mo +16% $ 4238M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$THC -6.8% 7.8%/wk 6mo +16% $ 1092M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$FIVE -7.3% 7.2%/wk 6mo +16% $ 1096M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$WT -7.6% 9.8%/wk 6mo +57% $ 226M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$WELL -7.7% 5.1%/wk 6mo +13% $ 3393M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$NVDA -7.7% 7.8%/wk 6mo +21% $135951M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$SM -2.2% 9.9%/wk 6mo +42% $ 602M 2G/1R neut MIXED
$JNJ -5.5% 5.3%/wk 6mo +10% $ 9155M 1G/2R neut MIXED
$UNM -2.4% 5.7%/wk 6mo +31% $ 595M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$OKE -3.2% 5.3%/wk 6mo +13% $ 1701M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$HALO -3.6% 7.3%/wk 6mo +68% $ 756M 0G/1R dist DIVERGING
$IVZ -4.1% 7.1%/wk 6mo +40% $ 647M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PLUS -6.4% 7.5%/wk 6mo +21% $ 86M 1G/4R dist DIVERGING
$NUE -7.4% 7.7%/wk 6mo +59% $ 1548M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$AAMI -7.6% 7.2%/wk 6mo +80% $ 165M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING

⚠️ DIVERGING — fake-coil risk (the don’t-buy list)

$LPG -0.6% 10.4%/wk 6mo +89% $ 144M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$BBY -0.6% 7.9%/wk 6mo +45% $ 1380M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$CHRD -1.3% 6.9%/wk 6mo +23% $ 494M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PR -1.7% 5.7%/wk 6mo +23% $ 915M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$ADM -2.3% 6.1%/wk 6mo +20% $ 1433M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$UNM -2.4% 5.7%/wk 6mo +31% $ 595M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$INSW -2.9% 8.2%/wk 6mo +57% $ 237M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$OKE -3.2% 5.3%/wk 6mo +13% $ 1701M 2G/3R dist DIVERGING
$EQH -3.3% 5.4%/wk 6mo +43% $ 640M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$HPE -3.4% 14.4%/wk 6mo+188% $ 4716M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$HALO -3.6% 7.3%/wk 6mo +68% $ 756M 0G/1R dist DIVERGING
$AAPL -3.6% 5.6%/wk 6mo +33% $73713M 0G/2R dist DIVERGING
$ARW -3.8% 7.8%/wk 6mo +62% $ 607M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$IVZ -4.1% 7.1%/wk 6mo +40% $ 647M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$TALO -4.1% 8.6%/wk 6mo +28% $ 141M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$FCFS -4.4% 7.7%/wk 6mo +18% $ 406M 1G/3R dist DIVERGING
$FTI -5.4% 6.0%/wk 6mo +21% $ 1184M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$BGC -5.6% 7.3%/wk 6mo +27% $ 151M 1G/2R dist DIVERGING
$KMX -6.1% 6.7%/wk 6mo +47% $ 626M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$ECPG -6.1% 7.3%/wk 6mo +48% $ 165M 4G/4R dist DIVERGING
$C -6.2% 5.3%/wk 6mo +31% $ 7187M 0G/2R dist DIVERGING
$PLUS -6.4% 7.5%/wk 6mo +21% $ 86M 1G/4R dist DIVERGING
$DAR -7.0% 8.4%/wk 6mo +19% $ 705M 2G/5R dist DIVERGING
$SOLV -7.1% 5.8%/wk 6mo +31% $ 424M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$NUE -7.4% 7.7%/wk 6mo +59% $ 1548M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$IBKR -7.5% 6.5%/wk 6mo +38% $ 1933M 2G/2R dist DIVERGING
$AAMI -7.6% 7.2%/wk 6mo +80% $ 165M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING
$JAZZ -7.7% 5.4%/wk 6mo +38% $ 918M 1G/1R dist DIVERGING

🌀 COILING — cohering, near highs (top 40)

$CRGY -0.1% 7.3%/wk 6mo +22% $ 341M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$DELL -0.1% 15.7%/wk 6mo+274% $13935M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$DV -0.1% 7.2%/wk 6mo +31% $ 149M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$NSIT -0.3% 9.0%/wk 6mo+105% $ 200M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$HZO -0.5% 8.0%/wk 6mo+105% $ 65M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$CRBG -0.9% 5.5%/wk 6mo +48% $ 555M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$MATX -1.0% 6.3%/wk 6mo +54% $ 305M 6G/1R accu COHERING
$CXW -1.0% 7.6%/wk 6mo +92% $ 256M 7G/1R accu COHERING
$TRST -1.1% 5.4%/wk 6mo +33% $ 36M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$HLX -1.4% 6.0%/wk 6mo +34% $ 63M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$CVX -1.5% 5.1%/wk 6mo +9% $ 7750M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$JXN -2.0% 5.8%/wk 6mo +32% $ 352M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$HPQ -2.1% 11.9%/wk 6mo +87% $ 2038M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$DBX -2.2% 7.2%/wk 6mo +38% $ 565M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$LFST -2.3% 8.7%/wk 6mo+105% $ 217M 5G/0R accu COHERING
$UFCS -2.4% 5.9%/wk 6mo +50% $ 41M 4G/4R accu COHERING
$CON -2.6% 5.4%/wk 6mo +56% $ 140M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$CNXN -2.9% 5.9%/wk 6mo +43% $ 54M 5G/0R accu COHERING
$APA -3.0% 7.5%/wk 6mo +30% $ 980M 4G/0R accu COHERING
$QRVO -3.2% 7.6%/wk 6mo +49% $ 479M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$LQDT -3.6% 6.6%/wk 6mo +49% $ 40M 5G/1R accu COHERING
$IQV -3.7% 5.9%/wk 6mo +59% $ 1390M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$NOV -3.8% 6.8%/wk 6mo +14% $ 316M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$KNTK -3.8% 5.5%/wk 6mo +22% $ 262M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$BIIB -3.8% 6.1%/wk 6mo +20% $ 930M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$ABBV -3.9% 5.4%/wk 6mo +17% $ 6778M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$ROIV -4.0% 6.5%/wk 6mo +45% $ 1005M 5G/2R accu COHERING
$PTEN -4.0% 11.0%/wk 6mo +25% $ 450M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$MD -4.2% 7.2%/wk 6mo +37% $ 93M 2G/2R accu COHERING
$WAT -4.2% 5.3%/wk 6mo +42% $ 1474M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$SWKS -4.3% 11.8%/wk 6mo +61% $ 1642M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$GEN -4.4% 7.5%/wk 6mo +46% $ 744M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$DVN -4.7% 6.1%/wk 6mo +9% $ 2376M 1G/0R accu COHERING
$EHC -4.9% 5.8%/wk 6mo +21% $ 511M 3G/1R accu COHERING
$DGX -4.9% 5.2%/wk 6mo +18% $ 932M 4G/1R accu COHERING
$PBF -5.2% 13.4%/wk 6mo +80% $ 903M 3G/2R accu COHERING
$FFIV -5.4% 7.2%/wk 6mo +42% $ 1046M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$SABR -5.4% 11.5%/wk 6mo +36% $ 33M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$FANG -5.5% 6.8%/wk 6mo +12% $ 1878M 1G/1R accu COHERING
$OVV -5.7% 6.1%/wk 6mo +15% $ 954M 5G/0R accu COHERING

⊕ Off-index operator radar — watch / learn (outside the indexes)

$FRO -0.7% 7.9%/wk 6mo +63% $ 444M 3G/0R accu COHERING
$TXG -1.6% 15.0%/wk 6mo+265% $ 714M 2G/1R accu COHERING
$TVTX -3.7% 7.9%/wk 6mo+138% $ 406M 2G/0R accu COHERING
$OSCR -4.3% 11.6%/wk 6mo+148% $ 712M 2G/1R neut MIXED

🔥 Stockbee momentum — persistent bursts (3+ of last 5 days)

different pattern (1–5 day burst, not a coil) — watch/learn; ⭐ = also coiling in the cockpit

$ZCSH — 5/5 days
$BWET — 5/5 days
$BNC — 5/5 days
$BRR — 5/5 days
$CHPT — 5/5 days
$BEX — 5/5 days
$GMEU — 5/5 days
$EDRY — 5/5 days
$TJGC — 5/5 days
$ACVA — 5/5 days
$CMRC — 5/5 days
$ODD — 5/5 days
$KPLT — 5/5 days
$ASST — 5/5 days
$RBLU — 5/5 days
$INDP — 4/5 days
$FTFT — 4/5 days
$DLLL — 4/5 days
$BEG — 4/5 days
$FBL — 4/5 days
$METU — 4/5 days
$CVI — 4/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$SWKS — 4/5 days ⭐ also coiling
$FEIM — 4/5 days
$IRD — 4/5 days

📚 Pattern lesson — learn by example

one clean live instance of each archetype; charts saved to the Pattern Guide Plates library

📈 Cohering Coil — real accumulation — $CXW

Tight box pressed to the high with green caps dominating: institutions buying INTO the pause. Structure (coil) and commitment (caps) AGREE → the roof is being validated. This name: 7G/1R decisive accumulation under a flat tape; glued to the high; very tight box

🎭 Fake-Coil — distribution in disguise — $FCFS

Looks identical to a real coil on price — tight, near the high — but the caps under it are RED. Supply leaving while price hovers. Structure says coil, commitment says exit. The trap. This name: 1G/3R — supply leaving while pressed to the high; structure says coil, commitment says exit

🚫 Extended — what we do NOT chase — $OGN

Already ran far from the 40-MA (high ATR-extension): the obvious move everyone sees, edge gone, prone to the pullback. We surface the pre-obvious coil, not this. This name: +30.6 ATR above the 40wk — -1.1% off high but already extended

📋 ThinkOrSwim watchlists — copy/paste (create a new watchlist, paste the line)

KC_Focus_W_0917 (30)

CXW,CNH,LFST,ROIV,LQDT,DE,NPK,ZD,TMP,EOG,CPAY,HRMY,GEO,EGBN,EXEL,NEM,THC,FIVE,WT,WELL,NVDA,SM,JNJ,UNM,OKE,HALO,IVZ,PLUS,NUE,AAMI

KC_Coils_W_0917 (50)

CRGY,DELL,DV,NSIT,HZO,CRBG,MATX,CXW,TRST,HLX,CVX,JXN,HPQ,DBX,LFST,UFCS,CON,CNXN,APA,QRVO,LQDT,IQV,NOV,KNTK,BIIB,ABBV,ROIV,PTEN,MD,WAT,SWKS,GEN,DVN,EHC,DGX,PBF,FFIV,SABR,FANG,OVV,OII,ADUS,APH,WEX,WHD,CHEF,NHC,CF,HAE,SBCF

KC_Fakes_W_0917 (28)

UNM,OKE,HALO,IVZ,PLUS,NUE,AAMI,LPG,BBY,CHRD,PR,ADM,INSW,EQH,HPE,AAPL,ARW,TALO,FCFS,FTI,BGC,KMX,ECPG,C,DAR,SOLV,IBKR,JAZZ

KC_OffIdx_W_0917 (4)

FRO,TXG,TVTX,OSCR

aG/bR = green vs red caps in the box (commitment). COHERING = structure + commitment agree · DIVERGING = distribution under a coil near highs.

Read № 107 · Thursday, September 17, 2026